Something that should be taken into account is the strategy of the two combatants.
Pair a Wizard who spams fireballs and a Ninja who plays his class well.
Ninja should win.
Pair a Wizard who has a strong combo and takes terrain into account to use Blink to the best of his ability, bolts AND megabolts dependant on replenish cd, and fireball to finish off the opponent - versus that same Ninja.
Wizard should win.
Pair a Necro that rotates his DoTs with Fireballs and Drainsoul, and a Paladin that likes to just thwack people with his sword.
Necro should win.
Pair a Necro that just fireballs, and a Paladin that watches his mana- self heals and distributes his combat skills economically and efficiently.
Paladin should win.
My one major problem with HC PVP is the lack of use of valid combination and situationally based attacks. As a long-time Wizard this isn't so much of a problem. I rotate the following if say, fighting a thief: Fireball->Bolt->Mbolt->Replenish->Run like hell-> Blink->Bolt->Mbolt (about 110 damage). If fighting a Dragoon, I may: Root->Bolt->Blink->fireball->Blink->Replenish->Mbolt->Bolt->Blink->Fireball (140 damage, but takes much more time, mana is an issue).
I agree that the problem isn't the casters, it's the proficiency of Rogues in killing them. A Ninja, if engaging a Wizard, should probably: Blackjack-> (One if speed is needed to catch up)->Smoke->Ablade->Garrote->Sword->Sword->Bolt->Kick->Sword-Sword (Deals in the ballpark of 130 damage and keeps the wizard silenced the entire time).
It's all about which order of skills works best in the given situation. I would do something completely different if fighting a theif in a 5v5 arena than I would in the wilderness 1v1 (watch the most recent tournament videos). The problem I of
ten see, is the lack of skill variance used by melee classes, and the equally bothersome fireball spammers
(Sidenote: Fireball is being completely changed with the upcoming edition of Heroes that comes after 1.2, once that spamming ability is gone, casters will be balanced).
It doesn't always come down to class matchups, it comes down to your mastery of your class, and familiarity with it. People that flip flop classes, and level up just to master one... meh. I can tell you that someone who has been playing Samurai for a long time, will fare much better than someone who just mastered it. Shoutout to Diffuse and victim130 . Sexy sammies.