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Paul_Bakken

Obsidian
Joined
Dec 3, 2012
Not that I dont belive you paul, but can we see some proof, like the email they sent out or somthing? But I think thats really cool and exciting. Do you feel like its actually going to happen? I was reading another persons AMA that was selected and they said they dont think its going to happen while they are still alive.

Both very fair questions! Here is a redacted image of the email that I received:

cjxg.jpg

Best I could do at this point. I have also been in direct contact with one of the Mars-One Project team members, Dr. Norbert Kraft.

In regards to your second question -- like I said, I am honored and humbled to even have the chance to participate in this program. There are any number of reasons why I might not make it through the final rounds, and there are any number of reasons why the Project itself might fail. But even in failure, there is the prospect to yield important "lessons learned" that will benefit the ultimate long-term goal of establishing a permanent human presence off of Earth.

For example, even if Mars-One never results in people leaving Earth, there will be extensive training and mission simulations here on Earth, either at the Devon Island simulation site or another similar location. These exercises will produce valuable data regarding everything from practical construction methods to food production, and from resource management to small team psychology in an ICE environment (Isolated, Confined, and Extreme.)

I am mindful of the Biosphere II experiment. Although many critics panned Biosphere II as a failure, it failed in a very useful and informative way. For example, one of the things that we found out from Biosphere II is that concrete soaks up a LOT of oxygen, and continues to do so for a long time after construction. This is a useful thing to know when choosing materials for a prospective extra-terrestrial habitat!

Finally, I have a favorite quote from Teddy Roosevelt that does a good job of articulating my feelings about the program:

"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."

If T.R. were alive today, you can be assured that he would somehow find his way onto that first transport to Mars!
 

Paul_Bakken

Obsidian
Joined
Dec 3, 2012
It is very likely they could leave now if they wanted. Governments are always slow to tell us what tech they have. For instance the F-117 stealth fighter was announced in 1988 as the latest and greatest. The reality was that it had been around for 20 years and had been in general service for 10. This trend has continued with technologies such as the SR-71 Blackbird and the F-22 Raptor being shown 20 years after initial service.
What do you think they might have now that they don't plan on showing us for 20 years.

I have no idea.

But the plan for Mars-One relies on off-the-shelf technology for the most part.

The given cost estimate for the program is US $6 billion. The main obstacle for the program is not technology, it is funding.

Here is some other historical data that provides an interesting comparison:

Historical budget for NASA (keep in mind that not ALL of NASA's budget is for interplanetary exploration):


...aaaaand some historical data on pork in the US Federal budget:

h2bj.png

My main point here is that NASA is perfectly capable of putting people on Mars. It is very unlikely, however, that NASA will ever get the funding to do so. This is because NASA must always compete for funding with Senator Porkenheimer's pet project that involves building a four-lane highway to a remote spot so that constituents from a local university can study how a certain species of cricket has sex or whatever.

The US Federal Budget could accommodate a manned mission to Mars within the next 10 years easily. In the case of the US government, the obstacle is not funding but, rather, political will.

And so, at the end of the day, I think it is more likely that a non-profit, crowd-sourced entity will raise the necessary funds and send people to Mars than it is for the US Congress to commit adequate funds to NASA to accomplish the same mission.

This doesn't make either scenario likely. It just means that Mars-One is more likely to succeed than NASA.
 

Jasquan

Legacy Supporter 9
Joined
Oct 1, 2012
Location
Denmark
I wanted to post soemthing awesome, but considering you're going into space and leaving earth, there's not much I can say, nor do I really have any good questions... But congratulations. Luck was your lady that day! The only thing I could think of to ask is... may you have some personal belongings with you? If you could, you should bring a camera.... and a hco flag
 

UltimateOptics

Legacy Supporter 7
Joined
May 18, 2012
Hey fellow Heroes --

I found out yesterday that I am one of only 1058 people out of over 202,000 applicants to be selected to move on to round 2 of the Mars-One program. Still a little stunned to be honest, but am honored and humbled at the opportunity.

My family is very supportive. The odds of being picked were slim, and the odds of actually being selected as a part of the first 4-person colonist team are vanishingly small, but I am looking forward to seeing just how far this adventure can go. I am approaching this with what I hope is healthy skepticism but, even if the program fails, the chance to raise awareness and maybe do some good science is too important to pass up.

Anyhow, I was planning to do an IAmA/AMA on Reddit soon. I am a little reticent to go through with it, though, because I have been watching other selectees get absolutely savaged by vitriolic trolls. I am hoping that if I do go ahead with it, perhaps some friendly faces from the HC community would be willing to show up and ask some thought-provoking, non-hateful questions. I know that on HC I'm just that weird old hermit who builds roads, but if any of you would be willing to help me with some support for my AMA, I would really appreciate it.

I'll post details on time/date of the AMA if there is sufficient interest. Thanks for taking the time to read this.

-- Paul_Bakken

PS: If I actually do end up going to Mars, I'll probably have to cut back on my Minecraft. The lag from Mars is pretty bad. :)
If you go to mars bring me back a postcard
 

GoldenBoy204420

Glowstone
Joined
Dec 24, 2013
Just watch sci-fi movies and remember that it takes about 3-5 year from knowing about something to having an audience watch it in a movie theater. so add 15-17 years to a movie premier and you've got the approximate release date of "yeah we've got _____ now".
Anything from a sci-fi movie older the 17 years that is not "existing" in the public eye was scrapped somewhere along the way to allow something better to be produced ;)
 
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