Bug The Lottery isn't Random Enough

[Delfofthebla]

Take a good look at this screenshot:

These are the latest lottery winners. I realize that this is only one sample, but I assure you, it almost always looks like this. If you win the lottery once, you tend to win again. And often again..and again..and again. It seems to choose it's winners in sprees.

I don't win the lottery often, but when I do, I make sure to buy tickets over and over--because I know that I will win again. (And I do.)

I think that there is something off with the seed that is being used for randomization, and I think it should be looked at.

 

[Jonsoon]

When the lottery came back in game I took screenshots of every winner for a while. I did that for two weeks I think, I'll see if I can find them when I get home.

Icy has probably won between one and two dozen lotteries.

 

[Delfofthebla]

When the lottery came back in game I took screenshots of every winner for a while. I did that for two weeks I think, I'll see if I can find them when I get home.

Icy has probably won between one and two dozen lotteries.

Awesome. Please do.

 

[TheSojourner]

Even if someone won the lottery 10 times in a row, it wouldn't mean it isn't random.

If you would lower the chances or even exclude past winners from the lottery, that would in effect make the lottery less random.

 

[Kwong050]

Dwarfers

 

[Kainzo]

The lottery is about as random as an itunes playlist (it actually uses the same principle) I definitely think it could be more random.

 

[WitchOnaRampage]

Need to check the winners against how many tickets they purchase if you're worried about bias.

Players who buy more tickets are likely to win more often...

I don't win the lottery often, but when I do, I make sure to buy tickets over and over--because I know that I will win again. (And I do.)

... Of course!

Some players only log on long enough to buy tickets ...

 

[Danda]

Even if someone won the lottery 10 times in a row, it wouldn't mean it isn't random.

If you would lower the chances or even exclude past winners from the lottery, that would in effect make the lottery less random.

However you can also argue if the same group of people are consistently winning then you can clearly tell there is something wrong with the randomization as the chances of this happening are extremely low.

 

[XenZan]

The chances of winning more than once in a set of ten are exponentially lower than someone else winning for their first time, much less actually winning multiple times in a row.

It's not impossible, just extremely highly unlikely, haha.

WitchOnaRampage has a good point, however, that the more tickets you buy increase your chances of being selected, but once again, the chances are still not in your favor (or at least shouldn't be) to win multiple times in succession. Lots of people buy 5 tickets each time.

 

[Jonsoon]

Just pulled up all my screenshots and instead of uploading them, I input them into a speadsheet.
This data is from Feb 19th - Feb 27th. I am missing some winners which I have marked. I wish I would have kept doing this.

View the sheet here if interested

This is anyone who has won more than once out of the 98 plays:

6. Fuzlogix-------------9,688c
6. Kidwatson-----------7,960c
4. Pampita-------------9,440c
4. dils1-----------------5,584c
3. firebus--------------7,604c
3. Bloxncubes----------3,972c
3. HoldMyPie----------3,684c
3. gabizou--------------3,504c
3. eddy7654321--------3,236c
2. winex44-------------6,376c
2. TigoBitties123-------3,656c
2. mittens321----------3,624c
2. BeasttRecon---------3,575c
2. PewPewPewLasers--3,256c
2. victim130------------2,920c
2. TheKaichu-----------2,680c
2. Troppics-------------2,664

 

[kirinelf]

Just pulled up all my screenshots and instead of uploading them, I input them into a speadsheet.
This data is from Feb 19th - Feb 27th. I am missing some winners which I have marked. I wish I would have kept doing this.

View the sheet here if interested

This is anyone who has won more than once out of the 98 plays:

6. Fuzlogix-------------9,688c
6. Kidwatson-----------7,960c
4. Pampita-------------9,440c
4. dils1-----------------5,584c
3. firebus--------------7,604c
3. Bloxncubes----------3,972c
3. HoldMyPie----------3,684c
3. gabizou--------------3,504c
3. eddy7654321--------3,236c
2. winex44-------------6,376c
2. TigoBitties123-------3,656c
2. mittens321----------3,624c
2. BeasttRecon---------3,575c
2. PewPewPewLasers--3,256c
2. victim130------------2,920c
2. TheKaichu-----------2,680c
2. Troppics-------------2,664

I'm no expert, but... that don't look too random to me.

 

[Kainzo]

It is certainly "Random" but how random it is can be increased.

I've spoken with the developer of Lottery and had him tweak some settings. We're going to throw this fix in next patch.

 

[Haxnn]

Edit: Never mind, I'm stupid... -.-

 

[Dwarfers]

It is random, not random enough for some people I guess kainzo. People tend to quit on the lottery after trying to win which means there are less players entered in the lottery leading to the previous winner having a strong chance of winning. There is also the case where people eventually go bankrupt from not winning I know this because I won one time about 5,000 coins from the lottery on this map. Guess what, I didn't win again for at least a month and by then I had wasted maybe 4,000 coins on the lottery which led me to not want to buy tickets again. Now I buy 1 ticket instead of 5(learned from my mistakes) which I believe others begin to do while another would buy 5. I don't know if you understand where I am going with this but yeah.

Tip: Lotteries that happen during the night in the U.S. tend to be easier to win as there are less players online to enter it.

It IS random, but as kainzo stated above it can be increased to be even more random I guess.

 

[Kainzo]

We've updated the lottery to be 'more' random... so it changes seed-calls more often.

 

[RandomAcronym]

Did someone say my name?
Seriously if it's that much of a problem (unless kainzo's fix is working) try Random.org
This Java API could help.

 

[Grinch]

Did someone say my name?
Seriously if it's that much of a problem (unless kainzo's fix is working) try Random.org
This Java API could help.

The developer recently made a change to use SecureRandom instead of normal Random (part of Java's API). As far as I'm aware, it's pretty much as random as you can get with.

 

[RandomAcronym]

Grinch That's good to hear